Human overpopulation - Wikipedia
This paper investigates the link between population growth, energy resources and carrying capacity at a global level, to determine if there might. Human overpopulation (or population overshoot) occurs when the ecological footprint of a As of January 5, the world's human population is estimated to be billion. . Refugees from places like Sudan have further strained the resources of . There is a strong correlation between overpopulation and poverty . The relation between population and natural resources. MV One of the most pressing issue of the world is the fast growth of population.
That is, population initially grows fairly quickly but eventually a coal population ceiling is reached. Because coal emissions are the dirtiest of the fossil fuel emissions, pressure to reduce coal use grows with concern over the potential climate altering effects of increased carbon dioxide emissions. World Coal Consumption Sources: JenkinsBP This model assumes that annual coal consumption will peak at approximately 4 Gtoe.
Current annual world coal consumption is approximately 3. Again, future coal consumption is seen as being limited more by environmental concerns and cleaner alternatives than by the amount of world coal reserves. At these current and projected rates of coal consumption, coal might be expected to support roughly 2. Oil was the next source of energy to be commercialised. Oil is easier to handle than coal. It is cleaner burning and cheaper to transport and store, making it ideal as a transportation fuel.
It was able to further increase productivity.
The relation between population and natural resources by Miles Villegas on Prezi
Oil provides the energy needed to grow and distribute food, and to increase the nutritional content of agricultural produce. Extensive land, air and sea transportation networks enable easy distribution of food. This stimulates mortality decline by getting food to the people that need it, alleviating local food shortages, flying food aid to drought stricken regions and shipping grain to countries whose populations have grown larger than their output of food.
Oil Population is plotted in Figure 8 along with a fitted logistic curve. The graph shows that currently over 2. Oil Consumption Sources: JenkinsBP Figure 9 plots world crude oil consumption from to The dips in the oil consumption curve reflect the two oil shocks in the s and and the consequences of the Gulf War in And there will no doubt be another dip due to the economic crisis of A logistic curve is fitted to the oil consumption line, which assumes a peak annual consumption of 4 Gigatonnes of oil Gto.
There is vociferous debate as to whether oil consumption will continue to grow, allowing the ceiling to move upward. This model assumes we are near at or near a peak of oil consumption. Alternative future scenarios will be examined in a following section.How Many People Can The Earth Hold?
Natural Gas Population and the Twenty-first Century Although the history of natural gas consumption is short and trends are very recent, based on the above figures Natural Gas Population may raise the population ceiling by another billion people or so Figure This increase is much smaller than the increase due either to coal or oil.
Natural Gas Population — Natural gas is predominantly a rich country fuel. It may be that gas has less impact then oil as oil already enabled most of the improvements in mortality.
Also, oil has until now been a much better transportation fuel. It may also be that as the quality of energy sources becomes ever higher, the downward effects on fertility rates become more significant than the downward effects on mortality rates. World Natural Gas Consumption Sources: BP Again a logistic curve is fitted to the natural gas consumption line Figure 11which assumes a peak annual consumption of 3.
Population and environment: a global challenge
Their effects on population will be radically different. Continued fossil fuel growth 2.
Fossil fuel decline and no sufficient substitute 3. Fossil fuel decline and a new source of energy Scenario 1: Continued Fossil Fuel Consumption Growth In this scenario, fossil fuel consumption continues to grow at similar rates to the recent past and population grows as projected by the United Nations to 9 billion people by Unless carbon sequestration technologies quickly become viable, this will have detrimental effects on climate change.
The increased importance of natural gas in the 21st century may also contribute to population growth, as the introduction of new energy sources has done in the past. But based on current trends natural gas will play a much smaller part than coal. Or population may already be slowing more quickly than most analysts realise. If population growth were related to oil production and oil production is beginning to decline, Oil Population will also decline — in other words, its growth curve may change from a slowing logistic curve, to a declining parabolic curve — and therefore a large component of global population will decline more quickly than most people anticipate.
Mortality rates may increase, as a population grown large through dependence on high quality energy sources now must allocate scarcer resources per person. Without them, agricultural productivity decreases and less people can be fed.
Human carrying capacity decreases. Figure 14 depicts projected world oil production to They do not include unconventional oil resources such as shale oil, oil from tar sands, ultra-deep water oil or polar oil. These oil sources are not included because they are much more expensive to extract, in monetary terms but also in energy terms. In other words, a large amount of energy inputs are required to extract energy outputs from say, tar sands in north western Canada. Hence the net energy gain is lower, and these energy sources may not be as important in raising productivity and population ceilings.
Based on these projections, the 3. Projected World Oil Production Source: According to Boserup, demand-induced innovation led to the shift from hunter-gatherer societies to agricultural societies and from the use of wood to coal.
One could speculate that a shortage of fossil fuels caused by population pressures would lead to yet more innovation and the discovery of newer and better sources of energy.
From our vantage point though, it is not clear what these innovations might be or what new sources of energy would be capable of replacing fossil fuels. A higher quality energy source, say fission, could lead to further productivity improvements, reducing the pressure on existing resources and further raising the ceiling on population size.
But fission still lies closer to the realms of science fiction than science. A lower quality energy source, like solar or wind power, is less efficient. It has less ability to perform work and to raise productivity. Another problem with low quality energy sources is that their net energy is low — they require a large proportion of energy in, to get some energy out — in contradistinction to oil and gas, which have high net energy values. A switch to a lower quality energy source from fossil fuels will put further pressure on other remaining energy sources, such as wood and coal.
This could lead to further pressures on land and other resources and hence lower the population ceiling. Low quality energy resources do not support large populations. Nuclear power is not the answer. In a period of declining oil and gas resources, existing energy sources would be getting scarcer.
Perhaps a new high quality source of energy will be found. This would then add a new energy component to population growth.
Peak People: The Interrelationship between Population Growth and Energy Resources - Resilience
This may lead to a raised population ceiling and an initial burst of population growth as population grows to occupy the space between the previous ceiling and the new ceiling. Then growth may slow again as a new equilibrium is reached. Summary The sum-of-energies model of population growth measures a macro phenomenon.
The rise and fall of regional and national populations involve many complex issues of which energy resource availability is only one. There is no direct consideration here of mandated population control Chinadisease epidemics AIDS in sub-Saharan Africanatural disasters such as droughts and floods, war, contraception or lack thereof, either improving global or deteriorating Russia health care, dramatic declines in birth rates in many parts of the world Mexico and India and persistently high rates in other parts Middle East — although energy resource availability has an indirect demographic affect on all these phenomena.
The model also represents a macro phenomenon in terms of types of energy resources. Nuclear, hydroelectricity and modern renewables do not figure in this analysis. Their contributions to the global energy mix at present are relatively minor, but they too must contribute somehow to population growth. There is also no mention of energy intensity or energy efficiency. The model focuses on global effects on human population due to the widespread use of fossil fuels, since the availability of fossil fuel energy resources affects everything we do.
It permeates all aspect of our society. These phenomena will play their part but will be seen as secondary. In seeking to understand how we balance the needs of an increasing human population against the carrying capacity of our planet, we need to recognise the primary relationship between population growth and energy resources, and that this relationship is both positively and negatively reinforcing. From the Black Death to the Present Day.
Population and Technology, Basil Blackwell. The Coming Oil Crisis. Energy and Resource Quality: The Ecology of the Economic Process. John Wiley and Sons. The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. Atlas of World Population History. The Long Wave Debate pp. Food, Energy and Society. There is no doubt of the imperative and urgent need for a far reaching population policy to be adopted and vigorously implemented by African governments. One issue of relevance that requires further research is the use of the tax system as a means for controlling population growth and discouraging rural-urban migration.
To slow down population growth, should families without children be given a tax incentive or tax break? Should a tax penalty be imposed for each child after a fixed number of children, considering that the tax system has not solved the population migration problem? From Liability to Asset When a population exceeds the carrying capacity of the available resources, it can become a liability in efforts to improve people's welfare. But talking of population just as numbers glosses over an important point: People are also a creative resource, and this creativity is an asset societies must tap.
To nurture and enhance that asset, people's physical well-being must be improved through better nutrition, health care, and so on. And education must be provided to help them become more capable and creative, skilful, productive, and better able to deal with day-to-day problems. All this has to be achieved through access to and participation in the processes of sustainable development.
I noticed that you have tried to separate religion from the technological side of life. Is that not exactly, the mistake in the West in developing technology, without ethics, without religion? If that is the case, and we have the chance to develop a new direction, should we not advise the group on technology to pursue a different kind of technology which has as its base not only the rationality, but also the spiritual aspect?
Is this a dream or is this something we cannot avoid? Good health is the foundation of human welfare and productivity. Hence a broad-based health policy is essential for sustainable development. In the developing world, the critical problems of ill health are closely related to environmental conditions and development problems.
Malaria is the most important parasitic disease in the tropics, and its prevalence is closely related to wastewater disposal and drainage. Large dams and irrigation systems have led to sharp increases in the incidence of schistosomiasis snail fever in many areas.
Inadequacies in water supply and sanitation are direct causes of other widespread and debilitating diseases such as diarrhoeas and various worm infestations. Though much has been achieved in recent years, 1. In this sense, they really require a developmental solution.
In the developing world, the number of water taps nearby is a better indication of the health of a community than is the number of hospital beds.
Other examples of links between development, environmental conditions, and health include air pollution and the respiratory illnesses it brings, the impact of housing conditions on the spread of tuberculosis, the effects of carcinogens and toxic substances, and the exposure to hazards in the workplace and elsewhere.
Many health problems arise from the nutritional deficiencies that occur in virtually all developing countries, but most acutely in low-income areas. Most malnutrition is related to a shortage of calories or protein or both, but some diets also lack specific elements and compounds, such as iron and iodine. Health will be greatly improved in low-income areas by policies that lead to the production of more of the cheap foods the poor traditionally eat - coarse grains and root crops.
These health, nutrition, environment, and development links imply that health policy cannot be conceived of purely in terms of curative or preventive medicine, or even in terms of greater attention to public health. Integrated approaches are needed that reflect key health objectives in areas such as food production; water supply and sanitation: Beyond this, it is necessary to identify vulnerable groups and their health risks and to ensure that the socio-economic factors that underlie these risks are taken into account in other areas of development policy.
WHO's 'Health for All' strategy should be broadened far beyond the provision of medical workers and clinics, to cover health-related interventions in all development activities.
Within the narrower area of health care, providing primary health care facilities and making sure that everyone has the opportunity to use them are appropriate starting points.
Maternal and child health care are also particularly important. The critical elements here are relatively inexpensive and can have a profound impact on health and well-being. An organized system of trained birth attendants, protection against tetanus and other childbirth infections, and supplemental feeding can dramatically reduce maternal mortality.
Similarly, low-cost programmes to assure immunization, teach and supply oral dehydration therapy against diarrhoeas, and encourage breast-feeding which in turn can reduce fertility can increase child survival rates dramatically. Health care must be supplemented by effective health education. Some parts of the Third World may soon face growing numbers of the illnesses associated with life-styles in industrial nations - cancer and heart disease especially. Few developing nations can afford the expensive treatment required for the latter diseases, and should begin efforts now to educate their citizens on the dangers of smoking and of high-fat diets.
A rapid spread of acquired immune deficiency syndrome AIDS in both developed and developing nations could drastically alter all countries' health priorities.
AIDS is threatening to kill millions of people and disrupt the economies of many countries. Governments should overcome any lingering shyness and rapidly educate their people about this syndrome and about the ways in which it is spread. International cooperation on research and the handling of the disease is essential. Another major health problem with international ramifications is the increase in drug addiction. It is a problem closely linked to organized crime in the production of drugs, in large-scale international traffic in these drugs, and in the networks for distribution.